Will the Mullahs’ Regime See Its 40th Anniversary?
Until recently, Iran was lucky. It was approaching domination in the Middle East. In addition to Lebanon, Iran controlled Iraq, Syria, and the Iranian client has been successful in the civil war in Yemen. A common idea is needed to unite the people. In this, the leaders of Iran followed the path of the Third Reich, choosing the Jews to act as the common enemies as the uniting element. One can also see a mystical connection between Iran and the Reich. After all, the “true Aryans” by definition are the Persians. Hitler was an impostor.
The regime’s first serious acts of war against the Jews were two terrorist acts organized by the Iranian Embassy in remote Buenos Aires – on March 17, 1992 against the Israeli Embassy, when 29 were killed and 242 wounded, and on July 18, 1994 in the Jewish community center, with 85 killed and more than 200 wounded. All the children in the kindergarten located in this center perished.
The world reacted to these atrocities indifferently. Then the Iranian ayatollahs set a closer and larger goal – the “Zionist entity” itself. They surrounded Israel from all sides. The first battles went well for Iranian supporters.
In the north of Israel, the second Lebanon war with the Lebanese Shiite organization Hezb’allah took place in July-August 2006, lasted 34 days, and ended in a draw. Every shot of Israeli artillery was registered by lawyers. The rockets of Hezbollah, based in private houses, were considered inviolable. The Israeli leadership several times set the date of invasion of its troops, then postponed it. Finally, the UN Security Council announced a ceasefire.
The next front of the war with Israel formed in the south of Israel. Hamas, equipped by Iran, launched thousands of rockets against Israel. Two IDF operations – “Cast Lead” (from December 27, 2008 to January 18, 2009), and “Cloud Pillar” (from November 14 to November 21, 2012) to defeat the Hamas did nothing of the sort.
The third, most serious anti-Israeli front, according to the mullah‘s plan, was created in Syria. The Iranians made a major contribution to the defeat of the Sunni ISIS. Alawite Assad’s regime was rescued, together with their client Hezbollah, and prepared Syria as a base for aggression against Israel. According to estimates, about 20 billion dollars freed by Barack Obama went to create in Syria more than 50 military facilities – disguised bases for launching missiles, reconnaissance and command posts, weapons storages, radars, and other military equipment. These actions were ignored in international circles. Then, instead of the Islamists and their patron Obama, unexpectedly appeared an unpredictable Trump.
The rapid developments of the last days, similar to the development in a fascinating novel, were unexpected by everyone. They began when, at the end of April, at night, unknown aircraft (unknown only for those without imagination) bombed a base with 200 Iranian missiles in Syria. Some Iranians were killed, among them, a general.
The world did not have much time to react to this unprovoked attack, because on May 1st, the Holiday of Solidarity of Workers, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arranged a grand show in Jerusalem. Before the cameras of all the major news agencies in the world, he unveiled half a ton of secret documents stolen in Tehran, proving that everyone knew that Iran was working on nuclear weapons. How such an operation was carried out can’t be imagined. Such a heist would be equal to stealing Lenin’s sarcophagus from the Kremlin Mausoleum and putting it on display in a middle of Khreshchatyk, Kiev’s main street.
The U.S. responded to the disclosure of Netanyahu by terminating the Obama-Iran “agreement” (the Senate never approved this “treaty”).
Two successively arrogant actions of the Zionists demanded retribution. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, however, felt uneasy and leaned toward silently swallowing the bitter pill. But the head of the Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, insisted on a reciprocal action to save face. The night after the celebration of Victory Day in Moscow with Putin and Netanyahu on a visit there, with the military orchestra performing on the Red Square the anthem of Israel “HaTikvah,” the Iranian troops fired on Israel an almost timid volley of 20 missiles. Sixteen of them, fired at open spaces, landed in Syria, the remaining four were shot down by the Israelis. It seems that the Iranian military wanted to say with this attack: “It’s nothing personal, we just want to show that we are men too and can’t be humiliated constantly at will.”
The Israelis were preparing for such a turn, and they didn’t miss the opportunity. Almost immediately they conducted a massive bombing of all Iranian military facilities in Syria. It was, according to experts, Israel’s largest military operation since the Yom Kippur War of 1973. All the Iranian military equipment mentioned above, on which 20 billion dollars was spent, was turned into a heap of scrap metal.
After that, Israel complained to the UN about Iran’s missile attack, and Britain, France and Germany condemned Iran for this attack.
Iran’s response was modest. They distributed a photo of their supreme leader Ayatollah Khameini, reading the Farsi translation of the anti-Tramp book Fire and Fury. It seems that the Trump opposition has acquired a new member. I doubt that it’s a valuable addition.
The future of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the light of recent events is extremely bleak. According to polls, 75% of Iranian youth are opposed to the authorities. They are accused of squandering the defrosted Obama’s money for external adventures to the detriment of the urgent needs of the Iranians. Iran’s finances suffer from monstrous inflation. The euro exchange rate was 70 thousand rials to one , and after recent events the rial lost another 40% of its value. Now the threat of new and heavy economic sanctions is hanging over the Iranian economy. The population of Iran is well educated – much better than in neighboring countries, and tired of destructive economic consequences of Islamist ideology.
But the main thing is that the authorities have become an object of ridicule. A no longer fearful public is openly mocking them. In recent years, there have already been two major uprisings against the mullahs, and a third is expected. The WSJ reported on May 6 on “hundreds of recent outbreaks of labor unrest in Iran.” Bret Stevens at the New York Times concludes: “The conditions that led to the so-called “green movement of 2009″ arose in Iran again.”
The most sensitive of non-U.S. observers predict a change of power in Tehran. Caroline Glick of the Jewish Press suggests: “The United States wants not only to review the deal with the mullahs how to change the regime… Strikes, demonstrations, riots and other expressions of popular disgust towards the regime are frequent in Iran.” Although the authorities have nowhere to retreat: “If the internal opposition gets power, the current leaders will be hanged – they will not be able to leave the country, because they have nowhere to run.”
Melanie Phillips in the London Times asserts: “All efforts should now be directed at encouraging and supporting the Iranian people so that they can topple their leaders.”
It can be hoped that to the question: “whether the Iranian regime will exist before its 40th anniversary,” we will get an answer – no, it will collapse beforehand.